Agricultural Bank of China may receive capital support in 2026

It is also expected to attract higher quality clients from smaller banks, says S&P.

Agricultural Bank of China Ltd. (ABC) is expected to remain resilient on higher quality clients and expected capital support in 2026.

“We anticipate ABC will receive capital from the government next year. The bank continues to shoulder its policy responsibilities and focus on lending that aligns with national priorities in China,” said S&P Global Ratings in a press release on 1 September 2025.

In the first half of 2025, the bank's loans grew 7.3% compared with the end of 2024, with key drivers being rural revitalization, advanced manufacturing, inclusive finance, and green initiatives.

China’s second largest bank by asset-size— and one of the largest banks in the world— is expected to attract higher-quality clients from smaller banks, given customer preference for stability amidst market uncertainty, said S&P.

This will control the bank’s credit losses and mitigate the impact of net interest margin (NIM) compression on its profitability.

ABC’s financial results in the first six months of 2025 were in line with S&P expectations.

However, profitability was still pressured by the low-interest rate environment, with NIM decreasing 13 basis points (bp) to 1.32%.

Return on average assets fell 5bp to 0.62% over the same period.