Indonesian bank loans accelerate in July but set to ease in Q4

Tighter liquidity conditions and a high base effect from Agrinas should temper growth.

Indonesian banks’ loan growth remained solid in July 2026 and is still estimated to fall between 8% to 10% sector-wide for the whole year, according to estimates by Maybank Investment Banking Group (IBG).

Loan growth hit 13.6% year-on-year in July, improving from 12.6% in June, Maybank said, extending the 11.5% rise in May.

Growth should gradually normalise as tighter liquidity conditions and the high base effect from Agrinas begin to weigh on comparisons in Q4 2026, the report said.

“Against this backdrop, we continue to favor banks with stronger funding franchises, healthy capital buffers and resilient earnings,” said Maybank analyst Jeffrosenberg Chenlim.

Indonesian banks registered a resilient net profit growth in 2026 year-to-date in the first seven months of the year, according to a separate report by UOB Kay Hian.

Banks’ liquidity source is diverging, with the private sector enjoying organic deposits, whilst state owned banks increasingly rely on liquidity from the government, UOBKH said.