Bangkok Bank profit to rebound in Q4 after 31.2% drop: CGS

Stronger lending income and lower bad-loan provisions are expected to support the lender's recovery.

Bangkok Bank's net profit is expected to improve in the fourth quarter of 2026 as lending income increases and provisions for bad loans decline, according to CGS International.

In an October 20 report, the research firm said stronger loan growth and improved interest margins should support earnings, whilst income from insurance and mutual fund services is also expected to recover.

The outlook follows a weaker third quarter, when Bangkok Bank reported a net profit of $282.4m (THB9.5b), down 31.2% year-on-year and largely unchanged from the previous quarter.

The result was 8.8% below CGS International's forecast, mainly due to lower income from investments and other non-lending activities.

For the first nine months of 2026, Bangkok Bank recorded a net profit of $891.8m (THB30b), down 21.6% from a year earlier.

CGS International expects the bank's full-year profit to reach $1.19b (THB40.02b), a 13% decline from $1.37b (THB46.01b) in 2025. This implies fourth-quarter earnings of approximately $297.3m (THB10b).

Profit is then forecast to increase by 4.8% to $1.25b (THB41.96b) in 2027 and a further 1.4% to $1.27b (THB42.57b) in 2028.

The expected recovery is supported by stronger lending activity. Bangkok Bank's loans grew 3.3% year-on-year in the third quarter, driven mainly by large corporate borrowers and overseas lending.

CGS International forecasts loan growth of 3.4% for 2026 and 3% annually in 2027 and 2028.

Interest income also showed signs of improvement in the third quarter, rising 4.6% from the previous quarter to $863.4m (THB29.04b).

Meanwhile, the bank's share of non-performing loans fell to 3.82% from 3.93% in the second quarter, as some borrowers repaid outstanding loans.

The amount set aside for potential loan losses also declined, with credit costs falling to 119 basis points from 126 basis points in the previous quarter.

CGS International expects this improvement to continue into the fourth quarter, allowing the bank to reduce provisions for bad loans.

Income from fees is also expected to improve towards year-end, supported by seasonal demand for insurance products sold through banks and mutual fund services.

Despite the expected earnings recovery, the research firm warned that weaker global trade could reduce demand for loans in Bangkok Bank's overseas markets.

Indonesia remains a key market, accounting for 11% of the bank's total loans at the end of the third quarter. Stronger investment and consumer spending there could lift loan growth beyond current forecasts.

Higher spending on technology, marketing, and business changes could also affect future earnings.

($1 = THB33.64)