Australia’s digital wallets squeeze cards as report forecasts 50% by 2030

E-commerce market is expected to expand from $89b in 2025 to $127b in 2030.

Digital wallets are forecast to account for 50% of Australia’s e-commerce transaction value by 2030, up from 43% in 2025, as consumers increasingly use services such as PayPal, Apple Pay and Google Wallet.

The shift is also expected at physical points of sale, where digital wallets are projected to rise from 21% of transaction value in 2025 to 32% by 2030, according to the Global Payments Report 2026.

Over the same period, debit cards are forecast to fall from 37% to 31%, whilst credit cards decline from 26% to 22%.

Despite the growth of wallets, cards remain central to Australian payments. In 2025, cards accounted for 37% of e-commerce transaction value and about 64% of point-of-sale spending.

Online, credit cards made up 19% of transaction value in 2025 and debit cards 18%. By 2030, their shares are forecast to fall to 16% and 13% respectively.

Buy now, pay later services are expected to remain a significant part of online spending. BNPL accounted for 13% of Australia’s e-commerce transaction value in 2025 and is forecast to edge up to 14% by 2030. 

Australia has the highest rate of BNPL use amongst Asia-Pacific markets, supported by providers including Afterpay and Zip.

Australia’s e-commerce payments market is forecast to grow from $89b in 2025 to $127b in 2030, representing compound annual growth of 7%. 

Point-of-sale transaction value is expected to increase from $438b to $526b over the same period, with annual growth of 4%.

Visa held the largest share of Australia’s card schemes in 2024, at 46%, followed by Mastercard at 27%, EFTPOS at 21% and American Express at 6%.