Agentic AI threatens $75b of bank payments revenue by 2030

McKinsey says that $65b of deposit net interest income is at risk.

Agentic artificial intelligence (AI) threatens up to $75b of banks’ global payments revenue by 2030, warned McKinsey & Company.

This is equal to about 4% of the $1.9t pool of deposits and consumer credit card revenues are at risk, the management consulting firm said in its 2026 Global Payments Report published on 25 September 2026.

About $65b of deposit net interest income is at risk, with agentic AI sweeping cash away from low-cost deposits.

“Autonomous treasury and personal finance agents could automatically sweep idle cash into higher-yielding accounts or alternative investments, thereby reducing low-cost deposit balances that institutions rely on to maintain interest margins,” McKinsey said.

Consumer card revenue could also erode, with $10b at risk.

“Agents programmed to optimize merchant processing costs or consumer rewards could dynamically switch payment rails, bypass interchange fees, and automate card payoff schedules to avoid interest charge,” McKinsey said.

McKinsey estimates that agentic commerce could cut card interchange revenue net rewards by 30% to 75% in card-heavy markets.

On the other hand, banks can also get productivity gains from agentic AI.

McKinsey estimates about $50b in productivity gains from customer operations, due to 15% to 20% higher contact efficiency and up to 40% reductions in post-contact administrative work.

Banks may also see up to $30b in productivity gains from software engineering and IT, $20b from support function efficiency—such as corporate function efficiency and checkout conversion—and $10b from product development due to accelerated time-to-market and feature design.