Digital wallets to dominate New Zealand online payments by 2030

Electronic commerce is forecast to reach $12b by 2030 with annual growth of 7%.

Digital wallets are expected to account for 37% of New Zealand's online payment value by 2030, up from 29% in 2025.

The report forecasts that New Zealand's e-commerce market will grow 7% annually, from $8.7b in 2025 to $12b in 2030, according to Worldpay's Global Payments Report 2026.

Credit cards are expected to account for 19% of online payment value by 2030, down from 25% in 2025, whilst debit cards are projected to decline from 20% to 16%.

Buy now, pay later (BNPL) services are expected to remain widely used, although their share of online spending is forecast to fall slightly from 13% in 2025 to 14% in 2030, according to the report.

The BNPL market itself is projected to grow 9% annually between 2025 and 2030.

Afterpay is the leading BNPL provider in New Zealand, used by 22% of online shoppers surveyed, followed by Zip at 5%. Klarna entered the domestic market after acquiring Laybuy in 2024.

For in-store payments, debit cards are expected to remain the most widely used method, although their share of transaction value is forecast to decline from 41% in 2025 to 39% in 2030.

Credit card payments are projected to account for 27% of in-store spending by 2030, down from 30%, whilst digital wallets are expected to increase their share from 15% to 22%.

The value of in-store payments is forecast to rise from $73b in 2025 to $84b in 2030, representing annual growth of 3%.

Despite the shift towards digital wallets, cards are expected to remain central to New Zealand's payment system, as most digital wallet transactions are funded through linked cards.

Visa accounted for 60% of New Zealand's card payments in 2024, followed by Mastercard at 20%, EFTPOS at 16%, American Express at 3%, and other providers at 1%.

The report also noted that proposed changes to New Zealand's Retail Payment System could prohibit merchants from charging additional fees for certain in-store card transactions.