Bank Mandiri says oil shock could lift bad loan ratio to 4%: report

Growth in the commodity segment may cushion its wholesale loan portfolio.

Bank Mandiri believes that growth in its commodity segment in the past year could provide a cushion against oil price shocks, even as it forecasts for the non-performing loan (NPL) ratio to rise to as much as 4%.

In a scenario where crude oil prices rise to US$130 per barrel, and the currency hits IDR19.4K to a dollar and stays in that range for the next three years, Bank Mandiri warned that its NPL ratio could go up to 3% to 4%, according to CGS International (CGSI).

Bank Mandiri’s NPL ratio was at 0.96% at the end of 2025.

Retail loan NPL will rise to up to 5% in such a scenario, from 2.74% in 2025; whilst wholesale NPL may rise to between 3% to 3.5%, from 0.41% by the end of last year.

“As for wholesale loans, BMRI believes the good growth in the commodity segment in the past year could provide a cushion during this current period while it reduces exposure to the manufacturing sector,” CGSI noted.

Total commodity exposure, including oil & gas, was 24% of Bank Mandiri’s loan book as of February 2026.